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Though Bush is no Bartlett

Aug. 20th, 2008 | 04:37 am

Real World 2008 ElectionThe West Wing 2006 Election
Barack ObamaMatthew SantosYoung Democratic charismatic legislator is initially an underdog but goes on to become first major party minority candidate.
John McCainArnold VinnickOld Republican Senator from Western state with a reputation for turning against his party on certain issues wraps up the nomination pretty early.
Hillary ClintonBob RussellInitial frontrunner linked to popular Democratic administration, but perceived as pandering and not genuine. Narrowly loses in an upset to Obama/Santos.
John EdwardsJohn HoynesFormer Southern Senator and Vice Presidential nominee comes in third in Democratic primary; Career ruined by sex scandal.
Joe Biden(?)Leo McGarryExperienced Washington hand becomes VP nominee after years of governing in relative obscurity.
Russia-Georgia ConflictRussia-China-Kazakhstan ConflictRussian conflict focuses election on foreign policy - current US president moves to intervene.

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Saturday

Aug. 19th, 2008 | 03:05 pm

It's official: Announcement comes Saturday.

P.S. One more thing to add to the list?


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Leak?

Aug. 19th, 2008 | 08:51 am

Halperin, in typical I-know-something-you-don't-know fashion, is strongly insinuating that Biden is the pick.

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Veep Time

Aug. 18th, 2008 | 11:15 pm

Obama: Probably tomorrow (Wednesday). Looks like Bayh (meh), Kaine (okay), or Biden (good). Sebelius seems to be out :-(.
McCain: Next Friday (day after Obama's acceptance speech).

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All Out

Aug. 18th, 2008 | 06:03 am

August is McCain's last month of private financing for the campaign - after he formally accepts the nomination at the start of September he'll be limited by public financing. So, he has to run through all of his cash reserves over the next few weeks. This is McCain's best time in terms of cash-parity with Obama, and he'll make the most of it - knowing that come September, Obama's going to be able to run the airwaves and the ground game up until election day.

I'm actually unclear on what RNC/DNC spending rules are for the general election period. So far, the RNC's advantage over the DNC among maxed-out donors has been the only thing keeping McCain anywhere close to Obama money-wise.

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Musharraf steps down

Aug. 18th, 2008 | 05:41 am

I'm not terribly informed about Pakistani politics, but when the President of the Middle East's only openly nuclear power (since Israel Certainly Has No Nuclear Weapons At All) steps down, probably that should count as significant.

It looks like he was blamed for a tanking economy and couldn't shake the rumors about his government's involvement in the Bhutto assassination.

I'm guessing this is (short term) bad for the US, who probably won't get a leader as cooperative as Musharraf in the near future. As for Pakistan, it's not clear to me to what degree their slowing economic can be blamed on Musharraf, or how the new leadership is going to be any better. On the upside, democracy seems to be working out pretty well in Pakistan at the moment.

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McCain has published his technology policy

Aug. 16th, 2008 | 10:21 pm

You know who should run the internet? ISPs.
John McCain does not believe in
prescriptive regulation like “net-neutrality,” but rather he believes
that an open marketplace with a variety of consumer choices is the best
deterrent against unfair practices.

I wonder if McCain believes in prescriptive regulation like "pavement-neutrality", the radical notion that pavement companies shouldn't have any say in how or where you drive.

Most of it is light on policy and heavy on nice-sounding nothing. Read it here.

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What Georgia Tells Us About McCain

Aug. 14th, 2008 | 11:30 am

Andrew Sullivan:


It has been a fascinating few days watching John McCain come alive.
The difference between his talking about, say, energy policy or the
economy, compared with the chance to have a visceral military conflict
with Russia is a valuable glimpse into what makes him tick. It isn't
just his comfort with military force. It's classic good McCain too. The
pattern throughout his career has always been seeking out the supremely
moral position in a losing conflict. And here comes Georgia, plucky
little Georgia, doomed throughout history to be perched between Russia
and the Black Sea, with a newly elected McCain-like figure, Mikheil
Saakashvili, thumbing his nose at the biggest bully on the block.
What's not for McCain to love? The hushed, Churchillian speeches and
press conferences, the thrill of breaking war news, the existence of an
enemy, an ancient, cold-blooded enemy against which to pivot. It's all
a wet dream for the Arizona senator.

No one should doubt that McCain's heart is in the right place.
McCain long championed the persecuted people of Iraq; and he came to
the defense of the beleaguered Bosnians. He is passionate about Burma
and Darfur. You name a lost cause and he will rally to it. And no
position fit him better than the role of lone crusader for the surge in
Iraq in 2006, a military exercise that in his mind would snatch victory
from the jaws of defeat, and punish enemies as disparate as Saddam
Hussein and Don Rumsfeld.

His position on Georgia makes much more sense if you see it in this context.

In his own narrative, he is always the one man who kept the faith while
so many lost theirs. Only McCain had the courage to champion Petraeus;
only McCain was in intimate contact with Saakashvili before most others
had even heard of him; only McCain can rescue Iraq; only McCain will
defeat Iran and Russia and China, because only McCain has the moral
clarity to see them as the evil they are, and only McCain has the balls
to defend the weak and the defenseless (unless, of course, the CIA has
them in a locked, dark cell).



That the world and America might need other virtues in the current
global context does not occur to him. That these often admirably
intentioned crusades might require more prudential reasoning,
restrained caution and delicate diplomacy is not in his play-book. What
Americans have to decide is whether, after the last seven years, this
kind of with-us-or-against-us crusade against enemies near and far is
the right approach to the current crisis. or whether it is part of the
reason we are already in so deep.








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Lieberman

Aug. 13th, 2008 | 06:14 pm

I think he'll leave the caucus before the election, or be kicked out afterwords.

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Georgia

Aug. 13th, 2008 | 04:47 pm

American troops. And Russian troops. In the same place. At the same time. Working for non-compatible objectives.

USA: In the future, make it clear that "we like you" does not mean "we're totally willing to back you in a military confrontation against Russia".

Georgia: Sending a few token troops to Iraq won't earn you American backing if you decide to piss off the giant, powerful country to your north. Don't do it.

Russia: Hey, guess who you're pissing off? THE ENTIRE WORLD. Do you want to provoke an all-out war? So far you've succeeded in strengthening support for Georgia joining NATO among both possible future US Presidents. This is not helping your sphere of influence, and is probably increasing opposition to you throughout the world.

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Full disclosure

Aug. 13th, 2008 | 11:10 am

As of today I'm joining InTrade to place (small) bets on political happenings. So, from now on you should interpret every post to this blog as a clever scheme to leverage the five people who read this blog into pumping up share values.

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Veeping

Aug. 13th, 2008 | 08:03 am

Obama will likely announce his veep early next week (when he's back from Hawaii), and certainly within the next 14 days (i.e. before the night of the VP acceptance speech at the convention). Right now, I'd short Kaine and long Sebelius, who I'd currently rank as tied with Bayh for first.

McCain will probably announce in the few days in-between conventions. Here, I'd short Romney (who would be a terrible strategic choice, plus McCain hates him, yet leads on Intrade with 33%) and long Jindal (who only has a 5% shot according to InTrade). But I'm much less confident on these predictions.

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We want information

Aug. 12th, 2008 | 03:44 pm

Hey - if you were a campaign and wanted to get the cell phone numbers of all of your most dedicated supporters, what would you do?

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Regulation

Aug. 12th, 2008 | 07:36 am

So, is it safe to say that the 1980's-90's deregulation bonanza is over? Government-induced global warming measures (whether cap-and-trade, carbon taxation, and alternative energy mandates) are getting pretty popular, net neutrality is ascendant and there's (public if not intellectual) consensus that corporations and industries ought to be reigned in a bit.

Thoughts? I'm not an economist, but I'll be happy to see some sane rules enacted.

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"Inevitable"

Aug. 11th, 2008 | 05:51 pm

In the first sentence of the first memo of the Hillary Clinton Presidential campaign, disclosed by The Atlantic today.

"...she is perceived as the favored nominee if she runs and so she has to take this position - and drive it to an inevitable reality."

The full memo collection is gold, especially because so much of it is obviously not unique to the Clinton campaign, but common to much of American politics. It's like the Large Hadron Collider of politics - dozens of strategists superheated by a primary and then smashed together, and we get to pick over the results.

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This is Mean

Aug. 9th, 2008 | 06:16 pm

It is also hilarious.

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The Most Important Video of the Election

Aug. 9th, 2008 | 03:21 pm

Just watch.

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Undecideds

Jul. 30th, 2008 | 07:25 am

Numbers:
  • 14% of registered voters are undecided
  • Of those 14%: 33% are Democrats, 19% are Republicans, and 48% are unaffiliated/other.
  • So, 4.5% of all registered voters are undecided Democrats; 2.5% of all registered voters are Republicans, and 7% of all registered voters are undecided independents.
  • Of all registered voters: 41% are Democrats; 32% are Republicans, 27% are unaffiliated/other.
  • We get that 10% of registered Democrats, 8% of Republicans, and 26% of independents are undecided.
  • Via Rasmussen's tracking poll, we get that 78% of Democrats are currently backing Obama, 86% of Republicans are backing McCain, and unaffiliated voters are "evenly divided".
  • Combing these results, we get that about 12% of Democrats are currently backing McCain, while about 6% of Republicans are currently backing Obama.
  • Over the last 20 years, party unity numbers have tended to increase as election day approaches (in 2004, Kerry won 89% of Democrats, Bush won 93% of Republicans)

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Professor Obama

Jul. 29th, 2008 | 09:48 pm

This is pretty fantastic: The New York Times has posted <a href="http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/inside-professor-obamas-classroom/">the final exams</a> Professor Obama administered during his career at the UC law school. The 2003 exam makes me happy. The first question goes on for a page about how dumb anti-gay legislation is, and then asks for a legal strategy to circumvent or fight those laws for a gay couple that wants to adopt a child.

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Down the Tubes

Jul. 29th, 2008 | 12:56 pm

Senator Ted Stevens indicted on seven counts of corruption. But the justice department just sent the indictment internet today, so he probably won't get it until next week.

This makes it very, very likely that Democratic challenger Mark Begich will roll over Stevens like a big truck.

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